Is Bitcoin biding its time for a major bullish trend or will it fail in breaking resistance once again and fall back to the $7,000 range? While several events in the past week made investors switch their bearish outlook, there is still large uncertainty regarding Bitcoin’s next move. Along with CME Group’s Bitcoin Options platform launch today, the current week will prove itself to be a critical moment in the asset’s timeline.
Opening the new week at $8,184, Bitcoin continues the trend of sticking closely to its next resistance point at $8,200. After managing to surge nearly $1,000 last week, volume levels will need to stay relatively the same (or increase in the best case), for Bitcoin stay bullish.
Despite the fact that volatility for the BTC/USD trading pair was fairly small during the weekend, trading around a $200 range, the cryptocurrency managed to stick close to resistance without any severe pushback. The question remains, will Bitcoin break its bearish downtrend or will we see a continuation of last year’s mini-bull run?
Tone Vays warns bulls
Former vice president of JPMorgan Chase and Wall street trader Tone Vays warned crypto bulls in his latest Trading Bitcoin episode. According to Vays, the funding rate on cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX is an important trading indicator and may hint at the moment that Bitcoin might not manage to break resistance.
He noted that the funding rate on the exchange has not reacted to the recent price action and that it is moderately positive at 0.01%, which is usually seen as being bearish by investors. In his video on Sunday, Vays stated:
“The oscillators on the daily chart are pretty much all bullish except the BitMEX funding rate — the BitMEX funding rate is actually very, very important, and it’s usually the opposite of what everyone’s been doing.”
Furthermore, Tone Vays reminded crypto enthusiasts that the funding rate is historically a good and successful indicator, saying that it is a ‘usually right’ prediction tool. Other than that, Vays believes that the next strong resistance level stands at $8,800.
CME Group launches Bitcoin Options platform today
Today marks the day when the long-anticipated Bitcoin options platform by the CME Group launches. While these platform launches have negatively affected the price of Bitcoin in the past, some experts believe that today’s launch will set a precedent.
As CryptoPythia reported on Jan 11, Bloomberg reported that a group of analysts from JPMorgan spotted an interesting rise of futures activity just days before CME’s options launch. Described as an ‘unusually strong activity,’ the spike may represent ‘high anticipation’ regarding the platform’s launch, believe the JPMorgan analysts.
Will history repeat itself?
Cryptocurrency investors believed in the past that influential global finance companies such as the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and the CME Group (CME) may bring institutional money to the crypto sector. However, both CME’s Bitcoin futures launch on Dec 18, 2017, and ICE’s Bakkt launch on Sep 23, 2019, have contradicted popular belief.
According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin dropped around $6,500 four days after CME launched Bitcoin futures and $2,000 four days after Bakkt launched. If history repeats itself, CME might cause Bitcoin to dump today or during the next few days.
However, the company might set a precedent and positively surprise cryptocurrency investors if the exchange gathers a significant amount of trading volume during its first day. For now, we can only wait and see if the JPMorgan analysts were right.